Gold gains as a investors seek safe harbor from geopolitical woes

Gold prices rose on Monday on demand from investors seeking safe harbor from geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and in Gaza, especially after the U.S. put pressure on Russia to disclose what it knows about the downing of a Malaysian Airlines plane last week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery traded at 1,314.60 a troy ounce during U.S. trading, up 0.40%, up from a session low of $1,308.00 and off a high of $1,319.00.




The August contract settled down 0.57% at $1,309.40 on Friday.Futures were likely to find support at $1,292.60 a troy ounce, last Tuesday's low, and resistance at $1,325.90, last Thursday's high.Concerns that tensions in Ukraine could escalate even further kept investors camped out in safe-haven positions on Monday, gold especially, amid reports that Ukrainian troops were moving in to the rebel-held city of Donetsk only days after pro-Russian separatists allegedly shot down a Malaysian Airlines flight with a missile.

Meanwhile in the Middle East, Israel pressed on with its ground offensive in Gaza in a conflict that has killed hundreds.Earlier Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama said he was concerned about the violence and called for a ceasefire in Gaza.

President Obama also accused pro-Russian separatists of tampering with evidence pointing to the cause for the Malaysian Airlines crash, adding that the burden lies on Russia to disclose evidence.

http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-gains-as-a-investors-seek-safe-harbor-from-geopolitical-woes-296518

Dollar mostly steady vs. rivals as U.S. data still weighs

The dollar was mostly steady against the other major currencies on Monday, as expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold for longer continued to weigh on demand for the greenback.

The dollar was little changed against the euro, with EUR/USD down 0.01% to 1.3650.The greenback remained under pressure after official data last week showed that the U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year.



Another report showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.Earlier Monday, official data showed that German retail sales data slipped 0.6% in May, compared to expectations for a 0.7% rise, after a 1.5% decline in April, whose figure was revised down from a previously estimated 0.9% fall.

The pound was steady against the dollar, with GBP/USD dipping 0.07% to 1.7025.The dollar was almost unchanged against the yen and the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY easing 0.05% to 101.37 and with USD/CHF down 0.06% to 0.8903.

The greenback was higher against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, with AUD/USD sliding 0.21% to 0.9403, NZD/USD dropping 0.49% to 0.8735 and USD/CAD easing up 0.20% to 1.0684.

The kiwi weakened after data showed that the ANZ business confidence index for New Zealand ticked down to 42.8 this month, from a reading of 53.5 in May.

A separate report showed that building consents in New Zealand dropped 4.6% in May, after an increase of 1.9% in April, whose figure was revised up from a previously estimated 1.5% rise.

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-mostly-steady-vs.-rivals-as-u.s.-data-still-weighs-292033

Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 23 - 27

The dollar inched higher against the euro on Friday, but still ended the week lower after the Federal Reserve indicated that its isn’t going to raise interest rates for a long period of time.

EUR/USD dipped 0.06% to 1.3598 late Friday, but posted a weekly gain of 0.47%.The pair is likely to find support at 1.3540 and resistance at 1.3650.

                   

The greenback remained under pressure after the Fed gave no indication of when interest rates could start to rise at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. In addition, the Fed’s forecast of where interest rates might reach in the long term fell from 4% to 3.75%.

The central bank cut its bond purchases by $10 billion a month, to $35 billion, saying there was "sufficient underlying strength" in the U.S. economy to continue tapering.

Despite this, the Fed also lowered its forecast for growth this year to a range of 2.1% to 2.3% from 2.8 to 3.0% previously, due to "unexpected contractions" in the first quarter as a result of the unusually harsh winter.

The Fed acknowledged the recent increases in inflation and drop in unemployment, but Chair Janet Yellen said no formula was in place for when interest rates would start to rise.

Elsewhere, the euro ended the week higher against the yen, with EUR/JPY ending Friday’s session at 138.84, for a weekly gain of 0.59%.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, edged up to 80.41 late Friday from lows of 80.24 on Thursday. For the week, the index lost almost 0.3%.

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/forex---eur-usd-weekly-outlook:-june-23---27-290831

Crude oil futures hold steady, Iraq still in focus

Crude oil futures held steady on Friday, still hovering near nine-month highs as ongoing concerns over possible supply disruptions in Iraq continued to support demand for the commodity.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. crude oil for delivery in August traded at $106.08 a barrel during European morning trade, up 0.02%.

Prices gained 0.44% on Thursday to settle at $106.05.Futures were likely to find support at $105.11 a barrel, Thursday's low and resistance at $106.79, the high from June 16.



Concerns about potential supply disruptions due to fighting in Iraq persisted, as the conflict between Sunni Islamist insurgents and Iraqi army forces continued on Friday.

Fighting in the Iraqi city of Baquba, located to the northeast of Baghdad, shut down the country's biggest oil refinery on Wednesday.

U.S. President Barack Obama said on Thursday that he was sending up to 300 U.S. military advisers to Iraq and that he was prepared to take "targeted" military action later if deemed necessary.

Iraq produced approximately 3.5 million barrels a day of oil last month, making it OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, markets were still digesting the fact that the Federal Reserve gave no indication of when interest rates could start to rise at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. In addition, the Fed’s forecast of where interest rates might reach in the long term fell from 4% to 3.75%.

The central bank cut its bond purchases by $10 billion a month, to $35 billion, saying there was "sufficient underlying strength" in the U.S. economy to continue tapering.

Markets seemed to shrug off data on Thursday showing that U.S. jobless claims fell more than expected last week, as well as a separate report showing that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area expanded at the fastest rate in eight months in June.

http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-futures-hold-steady,-iraq-still-in-focus-290703

Forex - Dollar at 1-week highs against yen, Fed ahead

The dollar was at one-week highs against the yen on Wednesday, supported by Tuesday’s stronger than forecast U.S. inflation data, as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.USD/JPY edged up 0.11% to 102.26, from 102.13 late Tuesday.The pair was likely to find support at 101.80, Tuesday’s low and resistance at 102.60.

                

The dollar strengthened broadly after the Labor Department said Tuesday that U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% from a month earlier, bringing the annual rate of inflation to 2.1%. It was the fastest monthly increase in inflation in more than a year, beating forecasts of 0.2%.

The uptick in inflation indicated that the economic recovery is deepening and boosted expectations for a more hawkish stance on interest rates from the Fed.

Investors were looking ahead to the bank’s post-policy meeting press conference with Chair Janet Yellen later Wednesday, as they awaited fresh indications on the timing of possible interest rate increases.

The Fed was expected to cut its asset purchase program by another $10 billion, but is not expected to raise borrowing costs until mid-2015.EUR/USD was little changed at 1.3544, holding above the four month trough of 1.3502 struck earlier this month.

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/forex---dollar-at-1-week-highs-against-yen,-fed-ahead-290231

Dollar gains on U.S. manufacturing report, ECB expectations

The dollar traded higher against most major currencies on Monday as investors applauded an upbeat U.S. manufacturing gauge despite two revisions to the index that confused markets, while expectations for the European Central Bank to loosen policy also firmed the greenback.In U.S. trading on Monday, EUR/USD was down 0.27% at 1.3597.In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management reported that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index for May ticked down to 53.2 from 54.9 a month earlier before correcting it two times, once to 56.0 and a second time to 55.4.

                         

While the corrections confused markets, the dollar remained higher, as any figure over 50 signifies expansion.Analysts were originally expecting a 55.5 reading, and expectations remained firm for the Federal Reserve to continue tapering its monthly bond-buying program, which weakens the dollar as a side effect.

Elsewhere, the single currency came under pressure on expectations that the European Central Bank will take steps to tackle low inflation rates that are threatening an already fragile recovery in the single currency bloc, including cuts to all interest rates.

Earlier Monday, official data showed that Germany's consumer price index accelerated at an annualized rate of 0.9% last month, down from 1.3% in April. Analysts had expected German consumer prices to rise by 1.1% in May.

Separately, Markit research group said that Spain's manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 this month, from 52.7 in May, in line with expectations, while Italy's manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.2 in June from 54.0 a month earlier, missing expectations for a 53.7 reading.

The European Central Bank will decide on interest rates and monetary policy on Thursday.The dollar was up against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.62% trading at 102.41 and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.37% at 0.8986.The greenback was up against the pound, with GBP/USD down 0.06% at 1.6744.

http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-gains-on-u.s.-manufacturing-report,-ecb-expectations-287483

Gold extends slump to hit 18-week low with U.S. economy in focus

Gold prices declined for the fifth consecutive session on Monday to hit an 18-week low, as investors continued to sell the precious metal amid a weak technical outlook.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for August delivery fell to a session low of $1,241.20 a troy ounce, the weakest level since January 31, before trimming losses to last trade at $1,244.40 during European morning hours, down 0.13%, or $1.60.



Gold lost 0.88%, or $11.10 on Friday to end at $1,246.00. Prices were likely to find support at $1,237.50 an ounce, the low from January 30 and resistance at $1,260.60, the high from May 30.

Gold extended losses from last week as prices remained below key support levels, indicating bearish chart signals. Prices lost 3.53%, or $45.70 an ounce last week. For May, gold prices dropped 3.9%, the biggest monthly price decline since November.
The precious metal has been under heavy selling pressure recently as investors bet on strong economic growth in the U.S. during the second quarter.

While data released last week showed that the U.S. economy contracted 1% in the first quarter, market analysts expects second quarter growth to snap back with a 3.8% gain, as the economy shakes off the effects of a weather-related slowdown over the winter.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for May for further indications on the strength of the labor market and the need for stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

Also on the Comex, silver for July delivery inched up 0.43%, or 8.1 cents, to trade at $18.76 a troy ounce.Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for July delivery rallied 1.19%, or 3.7 cents, to trade at $3.161 a pound as investors cheered an upbeat report on China’s manufacturing sector.

http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-extends-slump-to-hit-18-week-low-with-u.s.-economy-in-focus-287273