Oil curves move above $50 as financial confidence in crude rises - Sean Seshadri Trading

U.S. oil futures held above $50 per barrel on Friday as the entire crude forward curve pushed above above that level in a sign that financial markets have increasing confidence in the sector.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures (CLc1) settled at $50.44 per barrel on Thursday - the first settlement above $50 since June 24 - and were up 6 cents on Friday at $50.50 per barrel at 0542 GMT.

Brent futures (LCOc1) already moved over $50 at the start of this week, and were trading at $52.57 per barrel at 0542 GMT on Friday, also up 6 cents.

With both front-month contracts above $50 per barrel and each forward curve in contango, in which contracts for future delivery are more expensive than those for immediate sale, the entire crude futures complex has moved back over $50 per barrel. (Chart: http://tmsnrt.rs/2dz0bQH)

"There is still no end in sight for the current bullish run. Speculators have been buying every short-term dip, a strategy that has evidently been working very well so far," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at futures brokerage Forex.com.

"This trend could well continue for some yet as after all crude oil's fundamental outlook continues to improve: as well as the planned OPEC oil output cut, we have seen surprise inventory destocking in the U.S. for five straight weeks now. Consequently, U.S. oil stocks have now fallen below 500 million barrels for the first time since January," he added.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plans to agree on a coordinated production cut when it next meets in late November, in a bid to rein in a global fuel supply overhang that has dogged prices for the last two years.

"OPEC kept the heat on oil prices overnight. The Algerian Energy Minister saying that OPEC could cut by more than the 0.5 million barrels per day initial agreement," said Jeffrey Halley of brokerage OANDA.

"More significantly representatives of both OPEC and Non-OPEC producers will meet for a tete-a-tete on the sidelines of yet another energy conference next week."

Despite the increasing confidence by financial oil traders in higher prices, the physical market remains relatively weak.

In a sign of ongoing oversupply, top exporter Saudi Arabia cut its benchmark crude prices to Asia this week, and analysts at JBC Energy warned there was "a growing disconnect between the physical and the financial (oil) market" which would likely converge.

HSBC on Friday said recent gains in Brent and WTI should be kept in perspective, cautioning that seasonal aspects of the price rally would fade again soon.

Gold bounces back from 3-1/2-month lows ahead of U.S. data - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices inched up during Europe's session on Wednesday, bouncing off a three-and-a-half-month low as market players looked ahead to more U.S. economic data for clues on the likelihood of a December rate hike.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $4.00, or 0.3%, to $1,273.70 a troy ounce by 3:15AM ET (07:15GMT). The contract fell to $1,268.60 earlier, a level not seen since June 24.

On Tuesday, prices plunged $43.00, or 3.28%, its biggest one-day percentage drop since September 2013, as the U.S. dollar climbed to a two-month high and stocks rose.

The U.S. is due to release the ADP jobs report for September at 8:15AM ET (12:15GMT), with market analysts expecting a gain of 166,000 private sector payrolls, versus the 177,000 print for the prior month.

At 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT), the U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on service sector growth for September, amid forecasts for a reading of 53.0. In August, the gauge dropped to 51.4, its weakest level since February 2010.

A pair of Fed policymakers are also due to make public appearances on Wednesday that may offer insight into how divided they are about raising rates. Minneapolis Fed PresidentNeel Kashkari will speak at 9:30AM ET (13:30GMT), while Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker is due at 1:00PM ET (17:00GMT).

Markets are currently pricing in around a 14% chance of a rate hike in November, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. For December's meeting, odds were at nearly 63%.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.1% to 96.00 early Wednesday, not far from the prior session's two-month peak of 96.38.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold prices near 2-week lows on stronger dollar - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices slipped near two-week lows on Tuesday, as a stronger U.S. dollar following recent upbeat U.S. data continued to weigh on the precious metal.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery were down 0.09% at $1,311.55, re-approaching the previous session’s two-week trough of $1,316.80.

The December contract ended Thursday’s session 0.33% lower at $1,312.70 an ounce.

Futures were likely to find support at $1,311.90, the low from September 16 and resistance at $1,327.70, Friday’s high.

The greenback strengthened after the Institute for Supply Management said on Monday that its index of manufacturing activity rose to 51.5 last month from August’s reading of 49.4. Analysts had forecast a lesser increase to 50.3.

The reports added to optimism over the strength of the economy after Friday’s upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment data.

Market participants were focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the job market, as the Federal Reserve has indicated that future interest rate decisions will be data-dependent.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for December delivery slipped 0.26% to $18.822 a troy ounce, while copper futures for December delivery declined 0.59% to $2.179 a pound.

Oil prices stable on planned OPEC cut, but current glut still weighs - Sean Seshadri

Brent crude oil prices steadied above $50 a barrel on Monday, supported by a planned production cut by exporter club OPEC, but still under pressure from an overhang in supply that currently exceeds consumption.

International benchmark Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were trading at $50.25 per barrel at 0651 GMT, up 6 cents from their last close, although U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures (CLc1) were down 8 cents at $48.16 a barrel.

Oil prices had been supported "following OPEC's preliminary agreement to cut production," ANZ bank said on Monday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said last week that it would cut output to between 32.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 33.0 million bpd from about 33.5 million bpd, with details to be finalised at its policy meeting in November.

For now, traders said markets were still being weighed down by an ongoing supply overhang as rival OPEC-members like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are reluctant to give away market share.

OPEC's oil output is likely to reach 33.60 million bpd in September from a revised 33.53 million bpd in August, its highest in recent history, a Reuters survey found on Friday.

"Sentiment has been slightly dented by a Reuters survey Friday, showing that despite agreeing to cut production OPEC pumped crude in record amounts through September," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA in Singapore.

Analysts said there was downside risk to oil prices if the planned cut wasn't deep enough to bring production back in line with consumption.

"OPEC has created its own Q4 risk to oil prices ... In raising expectations of a November deal to cut production, it also risks a steep price decline should it fail to achieve its goal of cutting output back to less than 33 million bpd," Barclays (LON:BARC) said in a note to clients.

Despite that, the British bank said it did not expect a repeat of the price crash seen late last year after a rally earlier in 2015, citing an improving Asian economic growth outlook, falling oil supplies and rising investor interest in oil markets as support factors.

Trading activity was limited on Monday due to public holidays in China, Germany, Australia and parts of the Middle East.

NYMEX crude holds gains in Asia, Brent down after OPEC deal on output - Sean Seshadri Trading Institute

U.S. crude oil prices held gains in Asia on Thursday as OPEC agreed to curbs on production with details apparently still under discussion and investors noted U.S. inventory data from the Department of Energy.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.15% to $47.12 a barrel. Brent crude for December delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange fell 0.16% to $49.16 a barrel.

OPEC surprised markets Wednesday and agreed to production curbs under a formula to cut output to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels of oil per day from 33.4 million.

Under the terms, Saudi Arabia, the world's top producer, is expected to cut output by 350,000 barrels a day, according to reports.

Overnight, oil prices dipped on Wednesday as data showing a large build in U.S. gasoline inventories prompted a selloff that killed an early rally on a surprise drop in U.S. crudestockpiles for a fourth straight week.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels in the week to Sept. 23, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 3.0 million barrels, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.0 million barrels, far more than the gain of 178,000 barrels forecast in a Reuters poll.

NYMEX crude lifted further in Asia by API estimates, OPEC meet looms - Sean Seshadri

 Crude oil prices gained further in Asia on Wednesday as industry data showed a continued demand trend for crude and refined product stockpiles and an OPEC meeting later in the day looms.

Crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.60% to $44.94 a barrel.

The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventory estimates showed a drop of 750,000 barrels last week, coming on th heels of a substantial 7.5 million barrel draw previously. Gasoline stocks dropped 3.7 million barrels, the fourth successive week of draws above 2.0 million, while distillates fell by 300,000 barrels. Inventories at Cushing eased by 800,000 barrels.

The figures come ahead of more closely-watched data from the U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday.

Overnight, oil prices plunged nearly 3% during North American hours on Tuesday, extending overnight losses, after both Saudi Arabia and Iran played down expectations for a deal to freeze or cut oil production at the closely watched informal OPEC meeting on Wednesday.

Oil ministers from both countries said on Tuesday that talks among OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers in Algiers are "consultative," casting doubt on the chances of any policy decision during the meeting.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for December delivery ended at $46.76 a barrel.

On Monday, London-traded Brent futures surged $1.45, or 3.12%, amid hopes global oil producers will make progress on a deal to limit production at an informal meeting tentatively scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

OPEC members, led by Saudi Arabia and other big Middle East crude exporters, such as Iran and Iraq, will meet non-OPEC producer Russia at the International Energy Forum in Algeria on Wednesday at 14:00GMT (10:00AM ET).

According to market experts, chances that the meeting would yield any action to reduce the global glut appeared minimal. Instead, most believe that oil producers will continue to monitor the market and possibly postpone freeze talks to the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on November 30.

An attempt to jointly freeze production levels earlier this year failed after Saudi Arabia backed out over Iran's refusal to take part of the initiative, underscoring the difficulty for political rivals to forge consensus.

Sean Seshadri Trading - Oil prices slip on profit-taking as investors await U.S. stockpile data

Crude futures slipped in Asian trade on Tuesday as investors took profits after prices climbed more than 3 percent in the previous session.

The dollar was also weighing on oil prices after rising against a basket of currencies, suggesting markets were judging Democrat Hillary Clinton as the winner in the first U.S. presidential debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump.

A stronger greenback makes commodities like crude that trade on a dollar basis more expensive for consumers that pay in other currencies.

Expectations of a build in U.S. crude stockpiles last week, according to a Reuters poll, also pressured prices amid concerns of a global oversupply.

Major oil producers are gathering in Algeria for a three-day meeting that could see moves to cut or freeze oil output in an effort to support oil prices.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers led by Russia are meeting informally on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria from Sept. 26-28.

But markets remained skeptical that producers would reach a deal, said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at Sydney's CMC Markets.

"The dominant news for investors is U.S. inventory data unless we see something surprising out of Algiers," he said.

The reversal in oil prices during the Asian time zone on Tuesday meant investors were generally profit-taking, McCarthy said.

Brent crude futures slipped 27 cents to $47.08 a barrel as of 0639 GMT after closing up $1.46, or 3.2 percent in the previous session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 13 cents to $45.80 a barrel, after rising $1.45, or 3.3 percent, in the previous session.

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks likely rose by an average of 2.8 million barrels to 507.4 million barrels in the week to Sept. 23, reversing three weeks of unexpected drawdowns, a Reuters poll of seven analysts showed.

That came ahead of weekly inventory reports from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) that will be released later on Tuesday, and the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) that will be published on Wednesday.

OPEC member Iran on Monday downplayed the chances of oil producers clinching an output-restraint deal although several other producers, including the United Arab Emirates and Algeria, hoped measures could be agreed to curb output.

"With the market still unconvinced an agreement will be reached, any signs that OPEC will cap output could see prices surge higher," said ANZ in a market report on Tuesday.