Brent, NYMEX weaker in Asia as API build aids bearish sentiment - Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices eased in Asia on Wednesday as U.S. industry estimates showed another solid build in inventories and investors took gains made overnight.

Crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.17% to $45.73 a barrel. Brent oil for January delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London dipped 0.11% to $46.90 a barrel.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said Tuesday crude oil inventories rose 3.65 million barrels last week, building on an increase of 4.4 million barrels the previous week and rose more than expected. Gasoline inventories recorded a slight draw of 160,000 barrels in the week while there was an increase in distillate inventories of 3.0 million barrels, the first gain in six weeks.

Cushing recorded a build of 1.13 million barrels after a slight increase the previous week.
Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday.

Overnight, oil prices were higher during North America trading on Tuesday, extending overnight gains as market participants continued to weigh prospects of a coordinated production cut among major global oil producers.

Bloomberg reported that several OPEC members were engaged in a last-minute push to overcome divisions between the cartel’s biggest producers.

Qatar, Algeria and Venezuela are leading the push to finalize a deal, while Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran are at odds over how to share output cuts agreed at a September meeting in Algiers, according to a delegate familiar with the talks.

The oil group reached an agreement to cap output to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held in Algeria in late September. However, OPEC said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.

The cartel pumped 33.64 million barrels of crude per day in October. The figures added to skepticism over the implementation of a planned deal by OPEC to limit production.

The possibility that producers could walk away empty-handed from the November meeting looms large after Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Libya all signaled they might not take part in the proposed production cut deal. Russia’s unclear stance is also fueling uncertainty.

Oil steady near multi-month lows on OPEC output record, U.S. rig count - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices were little changed on Monday near multi-month lows, dragged down by worries about oversupply as OPEC saw record output last month and as the U.S. rig count rose again.

London Brent crude for January delivery was trading down 3 cents at $44.72 a barrel by 0336 GMT, after settling down $1.09 on Friday. The benchmark on Friday hit its lowest since Aug. 11 at $44.19.

NYMEX crude for December delivery was down 8 cents at $43.33 a barrel. The contract closed down $1.25 on Friday after dropping as low as $43.03, its weakest since Sept. 20.

Oil has been under pressure since before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Friday that its output rose to a record 33.64 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up 240,000 bpd from the previous month.

OPEC plans to cut or freeze output, but investors are skeptical such a deal will be reached during the cartel's Nov. 30 meeting and are concerned that whatever agreement reached would not be effective.

BMI Research said in a note that the most likely scenario at the OPEC meeting will be no deal, as the election victory of Republican President-elect Donald Trump - a strong advocate of U.S. energy independence - has altered its expectations.

Any agreement to cut output and support prices would now be seen by some OPEC members as a victory for U.S. shale producers, BMI said.

Still, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih has said it was imperative for OPEC members to reach a consensus on activating a deal made in September in Algiers to cut oil production, according to Algeria's state news agency on Sunday.

Iran opened three oilfields with a total production of more than 220,000 bpd on Sunday, as the country continues to ramp up its production after the lifting of sanctions.

Adding to bearish sentiment was Baker Hughes data showing active U.S. drilling rigs rose by two to 452 in the week to Nov. 11, an increase in 21 out of the last 24 weeks.

Bolstering the market against further decline, China's October's crude oil output fell 11.3 percent from a year ago to 3.78 million bpd, while October crude oil runs rose 5.5 percent on year to 11.08 million bpd, highest since at least 2011, data from the statistics bureau showed.

Also, state-run oil company Petrobras' production of oil and natural gas in Brazil fell 2.5 percent from a record high in September to 2.68 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in October due to maintenance stoppages, it said.

Oil prices steady ahead of U.S. election, weak China data weighs - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices were stable on Tuesday as financial investors and traders were cautiously positioning themselves for a win by Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential elections.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $44.97 at 0610 GMT, virtually flat from their previous settlement. The contract gained nearly 1.9 percent the previous session.

International Brent crude prices were up 8 cents at $46.23 per barrel.

"Investors piled back into the energy sector," ANZ bank said, with polls putting Clinton ahead of her Republican competitor Donald Trump in Tuesday's election. Clinton is seen by investors as offering greater certainty and stability.

In China, oil data released on Tuesday was weak, albeit coming down from high levels.

"Chinese oil imports ... eased slightly in October but remained at elevated levels (on year)," ANZ bank said on Tuesday following the data release.

China, which vies with the United States for top spot as the biggest crude importer, bought 6.78 million barrels of oil from abroad in October, down 12.9 percent from the previous month and one of the lowest volume this year on a daily basis.

The country's refined oil product exports jumped 24 percent on a year earlier, as the nation produced more fuel than it could absorb.

Crude prices were held back by lingering doubts over the ability of oil producers to agree on a planned output cut to prop up a market which has been dogged by two years of oversupply.

The chief executive of U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Rex Tillerson said on Monday that global oil supplies have exceeded demand by 1 million to 2 million barrels per day since the start of 2015.

In physical oil markets, U.S. pipeline companies with operations at the heart of the country's commercial oil industry at Cushing, Oklahoma, restarted on Monday after an earthquake late on Sunday triggered safety shutdowns.

Brent, NYMEX fall in Asia as API crude build larger than expected - Sean Seshadri

Crude prices heldp weaker in Asia on Wednesday after industry figures showed a major build in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 1.30% to $49.31 a barrel. Brent oil for December delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London fell 1.12% to $50.22 a barrel.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said late Tuesday that crude inventories rose 4.8 million barrels last week, larger than expected, and following a 3.8 million draw the previous week. Stocks at Cushing eased 2.3 million barrels, API said, as an outage of a pipeline feeding the facility continues to crimp flows. Gasoline inventories recorded a build of 1.7 million barrels, and distillates fell 900,000 barrels.

Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday, amid forecasts for an oil-stock increase of 800,000 barrels.

Overnight, oil prices were under pressure in North American trade on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains as fading expectations of a coordinated production cut among major global oil producers and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed.

Iraq, the second biggest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia, recently said it wanted to be exempt from any output freeze deal among major global producers.

Global oil prices have been under pressure in recent days amid market skepticism over the implementation of a planned deal by OPEC to limit production.

The 14-member oil group reached an agreement to cap output to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held on the sidelines of an energy conference in Algeria late last month.

However, OPEC said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30, when an invitation to join the deal could also be extended to non-OPEC countries such as Russia.

Gold little changed, strong U.S. dollar still weighs - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices were little changed on Monday, although a broadly stronger U.S. dollar continued to weigh on the precious metal.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery were little changed at $1,267.25.

The December contract ended Friday’s session little changed at $1,267.70 an ounce.

Futures were likely to find support at $1,268.60, the low from October 21 and resistance at $1,271.50, the high from October 20.

Gold prices remained under pressure as expectations for a U.S. rate hike before the end of the year continued to lend broad support to the greenback.

The dollar was boosted after New York Fed President William Dudley said last week that the U.S. central bank will likely raise interest rates later this year if the economy remains on its current trajectory.

On Friday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that "this year would be good" for a rate hike.

Growing expectations that Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. presidential election have also added to the view that a December rate hike is likely.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 98.60, just off a fresh eight-month peak of 98.82 hit overnight.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for December delivery advanced 0.77% to $17.627 a troy ounce, while copper futures for December delivery gained 0.45% to $2.098 a pound.

Asia's oil markets are tightening as China cuts output, fuel stocks dwindle - Sean Seshadri

From sharp cuts to Chinese oil production to falling inventories of refined fuel products, signs are mounting that Asia's oil markets are slowly returning to balance.

Global inventories of refined products - made up from light and middle distillates like gasoline and diesel, as well as residual fuel such as fuel oil - have all fallen since the beginning of the month. They are now at or below levels seen this time last year, data in Thomson Reuters Datastream shows.

The drawdowns come after China, Asia's biggest oil consumer and a top-5 global producer, this week reported a 9.8 percent fall in output for September, amounting to one of the deepest cuts on record.

The falling stocks in most oil trading hubs, including Singapore, Europe's ARA (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp), and in the United States, as well as China's declining production, are signs of a market coming closer into balance following two years of consistent crude and refined product oversupply.

"The oil products market is in the midst of rebalancing – it started in the U.S. and Europe a few months back, and in Asia the rebalancing is starting to show," said Nevyn Nah of energy consulting firm Energy Aspects.

Despite a slight increase over the past week, Singapore's refined product stocks have fallen from over 58 million barrels last May to below 50 million barrels, according to government data. [O/SING]

"After two years of oversupply and sharply rising inventories, inventories may have peaked as supply and demand comes back into balance," Neil Beveridge of Bernstein Energy said on Friday in a note to clients.

Analysts said the tighter markets were a result of both strengthening demand and tightening supplies.

FROM GLUT TO SQUEEZE?

A tightening fuel market is also visible in Singapore's refinery margins, which have improved despite rising feedstock crude prices.

Gasoline profits have soared from just $1.70 per barrel in July to almost $10, while overall Singapore refinery margins started picking up in August and have since jumped from $2.50 a barrel to around $6.20.

"The net result of these developments implies that prices could have further to run as markets tighten," said Bernstein's Beveridge, who expected crude prices to average $60 per barrel in 2017 and $70 a barrel in 2018.

Given strong demand, especially in Asia, and tightening supplies, "there could be a substantial supply shortfall in 2017 which could go a long way to draining inventories," he added.

Yet for the moment, traders say Asia's markets are still some way off a squeeze.

China's gasoline and diesel exports, which contributed heavily to Asia's refined product glut, jumped again in September, customs data showed on Friday, as its refiners continue to produce more fuel than China consumes.

And with the refinery maintenance season coming to an end soon, refined product supplies will soon start to pick up.

Oil prices dip after strong rally, but sentiment remains confident - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices dipped on Thursday on profit taking after markets rallied the previous day due to a draw in U.S. stocks and an expectation of an OPEC-led cut in production.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $51.44 per barrel at 0122 GMT, down 16 cents from their last close.

International Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $52.64 per barrel, down 3 cents.

Traders said that the price dips were a result of profit taking following a rally the previous day, which saw WTI settle at a 15 month high, fuelled by a reduction in U.S. crude stocks by 5.2 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 14 to 468.7 million barrels. prices continued to rise overnight on optimism over OPEC supply restraint and weaker-than-expected inventories," ANZ bank said on Thursday.

The overall mood in oil markets remained confident, with most analysts expecting further increases.

Reuters technical commodity analyst Wang Tao said U.S. oil is expected to break a resistance zone of $51.67-$52.11 per barrel, and then rise towards $52.78, while Brent oil may stabilize around a support at $52.49 per barrel and then retest a resistance at $53.45. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plans to meet on Nov. 30 and hopes to decide on a half a million to one million barrels per day oil production cut, and the producer cartel hopes that non-OPEC exporters, especially Russia, will cooperate.