Monday, 20 March 2017

Gold drifts weaker in Asia as Fed views on rates weigh - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices fell in Asia on Friday with sentiment supported largely on political risk and mixed views about the pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes this year.
Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange inched down 0.13% to $1,225.45 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, silver futures fell 0.24% to $17.288 a troy ounce, while copper dipped 0.11% to $2.674 a pound.
Overnight, gold prices traded sharply higher on Thursday, amid a slump dollar, as investors mulled over the Federal Reserve’s more dovish than expected statement on the pace of rate hikes this year.
© Reuters.  Gold down in Asia
The Federal Reserve stuck a familiar tone in its statement on Wednesday, pointing out that interest rate increases “will be gradual” in 2017, and maintained its view of three rate hikes, with the remaining two rate hikes expected later this year.
Fed Chief Janet Yellen said in press conference Wednesday, the US central bank would continue to provide accommodative monetary policy to support the US economy but warned against a prolonged period of lower rates in order to avoid a situation which forces the fed to “raise rates rapidly”.
Meanwhile a mixed batch of economic data had a muted effect on the yellow-metal as it continued to trade near session highs.
Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 241,000. Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.288 million in February while the Philadelphia Fed Index topped forecasts at 32.8 for March. Both the Philadelphia Fed Index and the housing starts beat forecasts.

Friday, 17 March 2017

Crude prices move higher but upside seen limited - Sean Seshadri

U.S. oil prices moved higher on Friday, as a surprise drop in U.S. stockpiles continued to support, but gains were expected to remain limited as concerns over the effectiveness of OPEC’s output cuts persisted.
U.S. crude futures for April delivery were up 0.49% at $49.08 a barrel.
On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, the May Brent contract gained 0.56% to trade at $52.02 a barrel.
Crude prices rallied after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday that crude oil inventories declined by a surprising 237,000 barrels last week to 528.2 million barrels. It was the first drawdown in stockpiles since early January.
© Reuters.  Crude gains ground but caution over OPEC cuts remains
The commodity also benefited from a weaker dollar after the Federal Reserve’s policy statement on Wednesday was seen as less hawkish than expected by sticking to projections of three total rate hikes in 2017 and not four as some traders had hoped for.
However, traders were expected to remain cautious after a report earlier in the week showed that Saudi Arabia raised output back above 10 million barrels a day in February, sparking fresh concerns over a global supply glut.
Separately, Iraq said its March oil exports averaged 3.25 million barrels-per-day in the first 14 days of the month, slightly lower than February's 3.27 million bpd. However, the decline was not as much as expected, raising doubts over the country's compliance with the OPEC supply cut deal.
January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next six months, but so far the move has had little impact on inventory levels.
Kuwait is scheduled to host a ministerial meeting on March 26 comprising both OPEC and non-OPEC members to review compliance with the output agreement and to discuss whether cuts would be extended beyond June.

Monday, 19 December 2016

Gold prices down in Asia on investor caution - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices fell in Asia as investors exercise caution on expectations of Fed rate hikes next year and a likely stronger dollar.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for January delivery fell 0.23% to $1,140.05 a troy ounce. Silver futures dipped 0.13% to $16.068 a troy ounce, while copper futures declined 0.24% to $2.496 a pound.
© Reuters.  Gold dips in Asia
On Tuesday as the Bank of Japan held steady as expected and signaled a slight uptick in the economy. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday in the minutes of its latest board meeting said it is ready to lower the cash rate again, if needed, by assessing the benefits of lower interest rates with potential risks to household balance sheets.
Overnight, gold prices for February delivery settled lower on a stronger dollar and residual sentiment on an expected three Fed rate hikes in 2017. Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Monday said she sees wage growth picking up and a healthy job market for recent college graduates.
"While I expect workers will continue to face some challenges in the coming years, I believe, ... that the job prospects and career opportunities for new graduates at this time are very good," Yellen said in remarks prepared for the University of Baltimore's Midyear Commencement.
Yellen did not mention current monetary policy or other economic conditions in her remarks that focused on the current state of the job market facing the new graduates.

Sunday, 18 December 2016

Oil prices rise in anticipation of tighter 2017 market - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices rose on Monday in anticipation of tighter crude supply going into 2017 following the decision by OPEC and other producers to cut output to prop up prices.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $55.57 per barrel at 0401 GMT, up 36 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were up 43 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $52.33 a barrel.
Traders said the higher prices in front-month crude futures were due to expectations of a tighter market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers led by Russia have announced cutbacks of almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in oil production from January 2017 in an effort to bolster prices to reduce rampant global overproduction which has seen output outstrip consumption for over two years.
© Reuters. An employee at a Total fuel station waits for customers in south Jakarta
"With investors now expecting a relatively high level of compliance with the production cut agreements, prices should be well supported," ANZ bank said on Monday.
"Saudi Arabia has stated its willingness to cut production below 10 million bpd if needed (down from around 10.5 million bpd currently), which should limit risk to the deal," U.S. bank Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said on Monday, adding that some of the non-compliance risk to the deal to cut output in 2017 came from Iraq, which increased its January loadings versus December.
ANZ bank said that "some weakness in U.S. dollar also helped improve (oil) investor sentiment."
The dollar has lost 0.8 percent against a basket of other leading currencies since hitting 2002 highs last week.
Swings in the dollar can affect oil demand as they influence fuel prices for any country using its own currency domestically.
Despite this, there were factors that weighed on markets, preventing prices - which remain relatively low - from rising more.
In the United States, which did not participate in the production cut deal, drilling for new oil has increased for seven weeks.
Drillers added 12 oil rigs in the week to Dec. 16, bringing the total to 510, the highest since January, though still below 541 rigs a year ago, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.
"Since its trough on May 27, 2016, producers have added 194 oil rigs (+61 percent) in the U.S.," U.S. bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said.
As a result, U.S. oil production is edging up, rising from below 8.5 million bpd in July to almost 8.8 million bpd by mid-December.

Thursday, 15 December 2016

Gold stages mild rebound in Asia on price dips post Fed hike - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices gained in Asia on Friday in rebound trade from recent lows, though the downbeat trend remains in track on a stronger dollar and growing appetite for riskier investments.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures for February delivery rose 0.28% to $1,132.95 a troy ounce. Silver futures on the Comex jumped 0.76% to $16.080 a troy ounce. Copper futures rose 0.15% to $2.601 a pound.
© Reuters.  Gold rebounds in Asia
Overnight, gold prices fell to the lowest settlement price in 10 months as investors head for risk-on assets over safe-haven holdings such as the precious metal.
A global sell-off in gold exchange-traded funds and weak physical markets in China and India are taking away price momentum.
Indian demand, meantime, has suffered from a liquidity crisis in recent weeks as a massive swap of currency notes is underway that has dried up liqudity in the cash-intensive economy which view with China as the top importer of gold.

Tuesday, 13 December 2016

Oil prices fall on rising U.S. crude stocks, OPEC output concerns - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices fell on Wednesday following a reported rise in U.S. crude inventories and an estimate that OPEC may have produced more crude in November than previously thought, potentially undermining a planned output cut.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were down 69 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $52.29 a barrel at 0430 GMT.
International Brent crude futures were down 69 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $55.03 per barrel.
Traders said the price falls followed a report of surprise increases in U.S. crude inventories. Markets were also focused on an anticipated U.S. interest rate hike, likely supporting the dollar and making dollar-traded fuel imports more expensive for countries using other currencies at home.
© Reuters. An oil well pump jack is seen at an oil field supply yard near Denver
"Momentum continues to wane in oil markets with both Brent and WTI slightly lower overnight, following higher than expected API inventory numbers in the United States ... (which) showed an unexpectedly large increase of 4.7 million barrels," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA brokerage in Singapore.
"We expect Asia trading to have a slightly negative bias as traders trim longs into the Federal Reserves' main event this evening," he added, referring to the expected decision later on Wednesday by the U.S. central bank to hike interest rates.
Greg McKenna, chief market strategist foreign exchange and futures brokerage AxiTrader said that "traders pretty much have a Fed increase of 25 basis points locked and loaded."
Oil traders said prices were further depressed by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) which said it believes that Middle East producer club OPEC pumped about 34.2 million barrels a day of crude in November, 500,000 bpd above OPEC's official estimate, which was already a record.
If correct, that would undermine the effort by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers like Russia to cut almost 1.8 million bpd of production in a bid to end two years of oversupply and cheap oil.
The agency said global oil supply rose to a record 98.2 million bpd in November, as OPEC production offset declines elsewhere.
This stands against expectations of 96.95 million bpd of global oil demand for the fourth quarter of 2016.
Despite this, the IEA said that due to firm demand increases, oil market could show a shortfall of 600,000 bpd early next year if producers stick to their reduction plans.

Wednesday, 7 December 2016

Oil prices rise on U.S. crude stock decline, weaker dollar - Sean Seshadri

* U.S. crude inventories fall by 2.4 mln barrels last week -EIA
* Questions linger on producers can keep to output deal
By Jane Chung
SEOUL, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Thursday, supported by a weaker dollar ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting and by a drawdown in U.S. crude stocks.
International Brent LCOc1 crude futures were trading up 18 cents, or 0.34 percent, at $53.18 a barrel at 0116 GMT.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices CLc1 edged up 29 cents, or 0.58 percent to $50.06 a barrel.
© Reuters.  Oil prices rise on U.S. crude stock decline, weaker dollar
Crude oil inventories in the United States dropped 2.4 million barrels in the week that ended on Dec. 2, compared with analyst expectations for a draw of 1 million barrels.
But stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude futures, increased by a hefty 3.8 million barrels last week, the most since 2009, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. prices have been supported since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia reached a landmark agreement last week to cut production to erode a global supply overhang and prop up prices.
The U.S. dollar index .DOXY fell as Treasury bond yields eased and as investors eye next week's Fed meeting. A weak dollar makes dollar-denominated oil less expensive for importing countries. doubts remain over whether OPEC will be able to comply with output cuts and whether those curbs will be enough to rebalance markets.
OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will meet again this weekend in Austria's capital to discuss the details of last week's agreement, which aims at an overall reduction in output of around 1.5 million barrels a day.