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Sean Seshadri - IEA says OPEC compliance with oil cuts at lowest in six months

OPEC's compliance with production cuts fell in June to its lowest levels in six months as several members pumped much more oil than allowed by their supply deal, thus delaying market rebalancing, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

OPEC's compliance with cuts slumped to 78 percent last month from 95 percent in May as higher-than-allowed output from Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Iraq, the UAE and Venezuela offset strong compliance from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Angola.

"Each month something seems to come along to raise doubts about the pace of the rebalancing process. This month, there are two hitches: a dramatic recovery in oil production from Libya and Nigeria and a lower rate of compliance by OPEC with its own output agreement," the Paris-based IEA said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and several non-OPEC producers including Russia have agreed to cut production by around 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018 to ease a global crude glut spurred by booming U.S. output.

OPEC members Libya and Nigeria were exempted from the cuts due to years of unrest that have sapped their output. The two countries have managed to increase their combined production by more than 700,000 bpd in recent months, the IEA said.

"For fellow OPEC members, who agreed to reduce production by 1.2 million bpd, to see their cut effectively diluted by nearly two-thirds must be very frustrating, especially as their pact has, hitherto, been well observed by historical standards," the IEA said.

The cuts have stabilized oil at around $45-50 per barrel, but prices have come under renewed pressure in recent weeks due to growing U.S. output and little evidence of global stocks falling from record highs above 3 billion barrels.

The IEA, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, said strong demand growth in the second half of 2017 and in 2018 should nevertheless speed up market rebalancing.

It said demand for OPEC's crude was forecast to rise steadily through 2017 and reach 33.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter - up 1 million bpd on OPEC's June output.

"Provided there is strong compliance with OPEC's cuts, that would imply a hefty stock draw, even if Libya and Nigeria recover further," it said.

The IEA said stocks in industrialized nations in May were 266 million barrels above the five-year average, down from 300 million barrels in April. Preliminary data shows a further moderate reduction in stocks for June.

The agency also said that while non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Canada and Brazil were firmly back in growth mode, the recent decline in oil prices could force some U.S. producers to reassess their prospects.

"Financial data suggests that while output might be gushing, profits are not and recent press reports quoted leading company executives saying that oil prices need to be around $50 per barrel to maintain production growth," the IEA said.

Oil posts solid gains ahead of U.S. supply update - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices were higher in North American trade on Wednesday, extending gains into a third-straight session, as investors looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. on stockpiles of crude and refined products later in the global day.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude August contract was at $45.88 a barrel by 3:35AM ET (0735GMT), up 82 cents, or around 1.8%.

Elsewhere, Brent oil for September delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London climbed 75 cents to $48.29 a barrel.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its official weekly oil supplies report at 10:30AM ET (1430GMT).

Analysts expect crude oil inventories dropped by around 2.8 million barrels at the end of last week, while gasoline supplies are seen increasing by 1.1 million barrels and distillates are forecast to gain about 1.3 million barrels.

After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute said that U.S. oil inventories fell by 8.1 million barrels in the week ended July 7.

The API report also showed a decline of 800,000 barrels in gasoline stocks, while distillate stocks rose by 2.1 million barrels.

There are often sharp divergences between the API estimates and the official figures from EIA.

Oil ended higher on Tuesday, rising about 1.4%, as a lower 2018 forecast on U.S. crude production and speculation of possible output curbs in Libya and Nigeria fueled the strongest session gain for prices in over a week.

The two countries had been exempted from the pact among major oil producers, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, to limit global production and ease a glut of oil that has plagued the industry.

OPEC will release its monthly oil report later in the day, which includes figures on the state of global crude stockpiles. The data will give traders a better picture of whether a global rebalancing is taking place in the oil market.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for August was little changed at $1.533 a gallon, while August heating oil added 1.8 cents to $1.494 a gallon.

Natural gas futures for August delivery slipped 2.3 cents to $3.024 per million British thermal units.